Seems like yesterday as winter winds blew, and preps lined up by the weekend. It felt like it was a hundred years away as we made the mental countdown when days got longer, but the big weekend is upon. Time to hunker down and start your weekend handicapping now.

 

Louisville Forecast

The 7-day projected forecast has rain Tuesday – Thursday with a slight chance on Friday and Derby Day looks clear. – The best part of Churchill Downs is they have incredible drainage that can have a yielding turf course firm by the big day. So, if you’re planning ahead, there is a little glimpse of what Mother Nature holds. – The main course can take a beating from rain and the top-notch crew will have it looking good on Friday; look for the course to have plenty of moisture for the Oaks and the cool sunny day on Derby Day should dry out by the hour.

 

Race #11 – The G1 Kentucky Oaks – 1 1/8 main track – 5:51pm

#2 – Simply Joking (10-1) = Lightly raced daughter of Practical Joke out of an E Dubai mare Imply. The dam has 2 starters, 2 winners, and both were stakes winners. Her last works have a blazing bullet the best of 56 works at that distance for the day going 58.2 – Her next work was ultra sharp as well over the deep Fair Grounds strip. Florent Geroux in the irons for Whit Beckman and she has two wins, and a close 2nd beat by 3/4 at the wire. Her win in the Silver Bullet Day was over a sloppy/sealed track, and with rain in the forecast most of the week should fit into her wheelhouse over a track that may come up a little soft. Her last race in the G-2 Fantasy Stakes was a key race where three runners have come back and produced two winners. There should be plenty of honest pace and her stalking style should fit like glove.

Use with #8 – Five G, #14 – Quietside, and #11 – Good Cheer. 

 

 

Race #12 – The G1 151st Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 – 6:57pm

The race has plenty of speed, stalkers, and runners who come from out of the clouds. The winner will have to get the perfect trip in this field, and I’m leaning toward a couple runners you may want to take a double look at before making final decisions.

 

#10 – Grande (20-1) = Lightly raced son of Curlin for Todd Pletcher. Should play the role of the stalker with the pace in here and with Johnny V jumping back aboard has me excited. JV has been talking about retirement for quite some time, and what better way than play the role of the spoiler? – He has three starts, 2 wins, and a solid second in the Wood Memorial. This is his third start off a brief layoff, and both were at a 1 1/8. A nice work 20 days following the Wood and Johnny V wins 26% of the time when aboard for the “Todd Squad.”

#18 – Sovereignty (5-1) = 3rd off the layoff for the Bill Mott barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. A perfect late runner and was a beaten favorite in the Florida Derby last out. This son of Into Mischief is a gamer and 1/1 at CD and should be moving as they make their way on the far turn.

#19 – Chunk of Gold (30-1) = Jareth Loveberry aboard for Ethan West who is a local trainer in Northern Kentucky but looks like he is ready for the next level. Four lifetime starts with one win and three trips as a runner-up. West wins 40% with graded stakes and look at his last work; 59.1 over the Turfway Tapeta which is very fast over the forgiving surface in Florence. He’s done nothing wrong and a date with the winner’s circle is not one bit out of the question.