I’ve worked in horse racing since I’ve been 18-years-old. Started as a parking lot kid, and supervised all of the parking after that. I was promoted to work in issions to reconcile monies and work with the Union staff as a member of the labor-management team. – I was promoted to working in marketing as the player development manager to oversee our biggest players and create incentives to grow a loyal base. – I left to become the director of marketing at River Downs for 6 years, and shortly after was hired by Keeneland to oversee their new ADW program Keeneland Select. – After being there for 13 months, the program is still in place but just faced enormous competition from the big boys.  I was hired as the track announcer and morning line odds maker for Belterra Park. A job that has been one of my personal favorites.

Now, this wasn’t a resume or a bragging note. I wanted you to know I’ve been lucky enough to work my way through college and eventually stay with my first love of racing. I’ve seen from where to park the cars, to learning to create aspirational value among our biggest players and eventually going on to positions that allowed me to be a part of the inner workings of the track. Places like Turfway Park, River Downs, Kentucky Downs ( when it was called Dueling Grounds), and my present position at Belterra where I absolutely love what I’m doing and meeting new players daily. – After all, they are the most important aspect of our sport and business.

With this being said, I have an idea of what is needed, and if I don’t, I have been blessed with a cell phone packed full of numbers of people who can help me over the hump. – First and foremost. I am one of you. I started as a fan, and continue to this day. Give me the day off and a program in my hand and you’ll find me sitting next to you in the OTB doing what I love. I understand what you want. It’s not difficult as horse players are an easy group to deal with daily.

 

1. Keep the place clean and well-lit. – Free parking and ission are available every day. The parking area is swept, ice-treated in winter months, and seasonally decorated. Have your signage outside making it easy for new players here for the first time.

2. Have a large array of varied handicapping materials and informed staff to help you get started for the day.

3. Have the race book ready with all signals on screen and make proper adjustments throughout the day as signals end for the day and others begin. Keep the action ready to follow.

4. Have several clerks who will be able to help new players and seasoned guests. – The number of automated machines will take away most of the cluttering traffic for players who like to walk up and punch out their own tickets with minutes til race time. – This will run smoothly.

5. Restrooms will be cleaned and attended on the hour and any rubbish will be disposed of immediately. Nobody wants to kick cups and losing tickets on the way to the windows. They are our guests and should be treated as our business depends on them. Because it actually does.

6. Signage is key. Let the players have an area that allows them to see when and what tracks are running that day and change them at the end of the day for new ones to replace. – Having a kiosk where they can watch race replays is key. How much does it cost to have a seat? Zero!

7. Every staff person will have a printed sheet for the day to keep with them to inform players of what promotions are coming up, what time we open the doors, a list of numbers to call for management, and at no time there will not be the “I don’t know” answer.

8. Concession stands are staffed, clean, and ready to serve. Daily specials that will not cost you an arm and a leg. – The dining room is a bit more upscale, but there is no dress code, and the dining will be a very important aspect that is cost-friendly and gives you a place to call your own. – Once a player leaves to go to a local place to eat, chances are they are done for the day.

9. When the doors open; from 10:30am til 12:30pm, there will be a free self-serve coffee station where patrons can have their favorite brew on the house. After all, you are our guests. Get comfy and stay awhile.

10. At least three managers will walk the betting floor and restaurant. I want to be available for you. This will give you a person and not a number to call no matter what is needed. Availability is key to success.

11. Create a loyalty card tied to the racino or casino, allowing guests to use accrued points for a free program, DRF, or track merchandise. Most already have them, but kick it up a notch.

12. Create a big players’ room where the player development manager can invite in players who have reached a certain threshold. – This is the best aspirational investment you can make. People always want to walk through a door marked private.

13. Create free handicapping contests with 2nd chance drawings and low-cost contests where they can win money from a small investment and match wits against other players. – Eventually, move up to having bigger money contests where you’ll draw players from all over with TV ads and DRF and program banner ads.

 

So, the kid from the parking lot wants to know. Would you like to play in our OTB for the afternoon? Me too. – We’ve lost our way with teaming with the casino folks who have rules for rules, and there is little to offer horseplayers. They ask so little and now they are treated as an afterthought. Once I was working at a track and met a new racing marketing manager. I asked him where was his favorite track, and after ten minutes of explaining he hadn’t been to many tracks. The wrong ideas are being planted for complacency and mistrust from our loyal guests. After all, the casino wouldn’t even be on the property without our gaming license many moons ago.

What to do. – Some operations absolutely flourish. Others just limp along like a flat tire making excuses. Start by doing the little things for creature comforts. Treat players with respect and they’ll be back. Give them ease of motion for free seating and fairly priced food and they will be telling other bettors to meet them at your place. Be available. Let them know they can bend your ear at any time. I guarantee there will be a new sense of something going on. – Trust me. I used to do it and we had huge crowds of happy people. And I’ve worked in places where people have title badges and no idea of what to do with racing. – But, it can all change. Not that hard really, just treat long-standing and new players with courtesy and attention. Before you know it, you’ll be back to doing great business like you did years before the alternative gaming arrived. They can both exist and your race track now becomes an entertainment destination. Just like we wanted and hoped for all along.

 

 

As I sit here on Monday planning on building my bankroll. It is never too early to start hammering out your wagering plan. I know, it’s only Monday, and we better look at the weather and races we like, and start drawing up a plan to make my week a great weekend! – Best of luck from Winning Ponies!

 

Wednesday / Belterra Park / 30% of PM showers

Rain makes the turf course grow, keep down the sand, and kick back from hot days on the greensward. We’ll be ok to wager, watch, and win on some turf action.

 

Race #1 – StrAlw $5,000 – 1 1/16 on the turf – 12:35pm

#1 – Authoritarian = The Estvanko barn is rolling at a 24%-win clip and teaming up with their go-to guy Eder Martinez. They are winning at a 31%-win clip and are shooting for three in a row at BtP. – Here is the bonus: If the races come off the turf, there are MTO runners, and we’ll look at #10 -Raison Karter who also hails from the Estvanko barn. A speedster who just missed going three straights by a 1/2 length. – It looks to me that Team Estvanko is ready for the opener on Wednesday no matter the circumstance.

 

Race #4 – fMd $15,000 – 6 Fur

#4 – Ladle = Shipped in CD two back for Jerome Miller with Irving Moncada aboard. Early speed and a sweet work to sharpen her skills under Moncada who is winning 25% from only eight mounts.

 

Race #5 – Clm $15,000 NW2L – 1 mile on the turf

#9 – Lanehaya = Son of War Front who broke his maiden on the turf at BtP and has the services of Thiago Canuto for Robert C. Cline. – Should stalk just off and pounce at better than (5-1).

 

Race #6 – MdSpWt – 1 mile

#1 – Oathbreaker = Steve Margolis trainee with Jane Elliott in the saddle. His two maiden sp weight races were a pair of seconds over the track. The rail is winning 24% and should have plenty of speed to stalk just off the leaders.

 

Race #7 – fAlw NW3L – 6 furlong

#5 – Talkin in Cursive = Third start of the year for this filly and looks spotted well under Victor Lebron for Eugene Vosler. She has a nice late punch and exits off some solid workouts. Vosler has two starts with a win and a third-place finish. I like her chances more by the minute!

 

There you go! – Free selections and get your week started right. – And, if you want to play the races and want the best in handicapping guidance, look no further than the Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms. You’re already here, so the cards you want to play to give you the most comprehensive view of how the races will take shape. Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies! 

 

 

We all like being in charge and having the ultimate say. Well, today is your lucky day. You’ve been promoted to that big, overstuffed leather chair where the boss makes all the big decisions. The ideas that bounce around in your noggin will affect the sport and many jobs that benefit from the decisions that leave your lips. So, be careful. There is a great deal at stake.

Racing doesn’t need HISA. Plain and simple. We must adopt a model that works and focuses on cleaning up the sport. – We shouldn’t act like the “secret police” and come down on the hard-working men and women who keep our sport alive. When did we become such a hardass? Men and women obey rules and dodge HISA-like police who go through barn areas, vehicles, and every spot on the backside.

If there was a blood-testing process that was fair and accurate and not guilty before working with the horsemen; maybe we would have a complete compliance and transparent system. Sound good to you? Me too. I like the object of working with the trainers and helping to educate the workers on what will be accepted and other forms of alternative medications that have no performance-enhancing value. – By working with them versus walking around with a cloak-and-dagger-like presence I think we would see a sport begin to clean itself up internally. You have to want to change before you actually see active changes. Education and open working systems are more valuable than pushing your way into the lives of hard-working men and women.

First have a fair blood testing process, because now there are not enough vets to ister medication and conduct proper testing. – There is an investigative branch called HIWU which can walk into any barn, stall, or training area and demand to see everything in your operation. No appointment was made, but a strong “kick in the door” type process as they started asking questions instead of working with the horsemen. Wouldn’t it be a better process if there was a bad medication sample and they followed up with an open-handed effort to help horsemen clean up the sport through education and open dialogue? – Let them know what will not be accepted and offer complete and thorough explanations of the effects of the medications and their uses.

As I stated, there isn’t a need for HISA or HIWU. We could have a model like the MLB, NFL, or NBA to name a few where there is a fair process. Horsemen want to make a living, and many have done so for generations. Why would they want to chance losing anything by making bad decisions? – Racing can govern itself with the planning and implementation of solid rules and punishments. Sound like football season? Yep, it would be a sport that is governing itself and growing to become completely transparent.

Having tracks come together and address situations, and most importantly have a no-nonsense approach to honoring another state’s decision and couldn’t move to another racing jurisdiction to race. Having uniform rules would eliminate many problems and allow the sport to move forward versus an entity that was given open jurisdiction over the entire sport. – HISA is in some states embracing the new sheriff while others do not accept the organization. Therein lies the problem. There needs to be a complete acceptance of a national program where all tracks attempt to implement a program that levels the entire playing field.

 

Located on Union Avenue in Saratoga Springs, New York. They first opened the doors to the public in 1863 making this the oldest major sporting venue in the nation. The first meet only lasted four days and was eventually lengthened from mid-July to Labor Day. They have been in operation since 1864 with only a handful of exceptions. – Wagering and watching Saratoga is one of the pure joys of summertime racing. Here are some selections to kick off your Wednesday in fine fashion.

 

Saratoga / Wednesday

 

Race #2 – #2 – Save Time (7-5) 

A late runner who just finished 2nd going the 1 1/8 distance today. She was beaten chalk last out and trainer Chad Brown wins 29% with coming back to turn the tables. Irad Ortiz is in the saddle, winning 21% with late closers.

 

Race #3 – #1 – Vehemente ( 9-5)

First-time starter for Joe Sharp who is 23% ITM with his new runners on the track. The best part is she sports a bullet work and her sire Vekoma wins 44% with his first-time New York-bred runners. Luis Saez is in the saddle.

 

Race #5 – #9 – Olivia Maralda (9-5)

Sharp filly making her third start in the States under Flavien Prat. Her races were in Group company in the U.K.; once she received Lasix, her late punch was hard to hold back. Prat is winning 21% with late-running turf runners.

 

Race #8 – #2 – Sohana ( 6-1)

Brad Cox trainee who is winning 25% on the year teaming up with Flavien Prat to score at a 36% win clip. Stretching out from 6f to a mile on the weeds, I see her closer to the pace with Prat poised to pounce.

 

This should be a good start for your week, and by the weekend we will be ready to roll into a bigger bankroll. Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

 

I find myself today pondering where I’m at in life. – Was Law School on my list of life choices? Should I have gone on and taught school? – The number 58 has meaning, and on this day, I find myself listening to babbling brook sounds while writing. Is there a deeper meaning to life or did I follow the right path?

That’s the secret influence of synchronicity. Circumstances that appear meaningful and related to a lack of causal connection.  Angel number 58 is a message from your guardian angels, telling you to pay attention to how you plan on achieving your dreams. – My Angels have fully ed me throughout my life; this number is no different. Angel number 58 is a sign that your guardian angels want you to think of new ideas to increase your creative or financial wealth.

Diving in has led me right back to find myself. Meditating on the things that matter in life as another year older asks if I made the right decisions in my life’s choices. After listening to the calming music, I kept hearing the words “You are exactly where you need to be.” – I have to it that seemed to calm me a bit, and from there I planned my course for the future.

1. I want to dedicate more time to handicapping. Don’t rush but treat it as a fine glass of wine to be savored. The harder the work you put in, the sweeter the grape. For me, this brings great joy.
2. Pay more attention to putting in the time. Rushing is a fool’s folly. – Video replay watching, copious notes, and playing more from what I’ve seen instead of forcing my inner player to come up with an answer. Don’t force the answer. Let it come in time.
3. While conducting handicapping seminars, teach others the love of seeking the answer. We won’t have the pick-six every day, but we can impart to others our love of the search and finding what we saw in the past to help us in the future. – Players will learn from others. After all, that is how we began long ago.
4. Listen more. Don’t get caught up in your own thoughts, but truly listen to the words of others. It may make all the difference in the world. Keep your mind open at every turn.
5. I thought teaching school was my path and wanted to attend Law School long ago. I wanted to make a difference. – So, why not make a difference doing what I love? I love to teach, and that’s where showing others the process fits in for me. – As far as deciphering and digging to find the answer could be a version of two careers I looked at long ago.

Reading the article about the number 58 and its meaning was enlightening. Having guardian angels watching over me and helping me find a way to financial gain and creative wealth is very satisfying. – I enjoy showing others what I have learned over many years and watching them prosper is a double win. Many won’t take the time, and others haven’t mastered the craft of handicapping to be able to share with others much less themselves. – Take the time and allow your guardian angels to do their work. I found it to be a neat way to retrospectively delve into my game and hopefully come out creatively and financially better.

As I close, I’m a grateful man. Since 2008, I have had the unique opportunity to work with the wonderful people at Winning Ponies. We have chatted about horses, told stories to grab your heart, and handicapped horses to make your day a winner. – As I enjoy this day and look forward to doing what I love I wish you nothing but the very best, and glad you’re on the Winning Ponies site. That is the first piece of putting your handicapping puzzle together.

I promise myself every year I won’t bet any tracks I never follow. – I’m not sure of the track bias, what happens when it rains, or who the toughest jock at the oval would be. Oh, what the heck, it’s just the Preakness; and I love the Triple Crown action. Bad decision…

The Kentucky Derby is different. I play Churchill Downs all year long. I know the track absorbs moisture like a sponge and sometimes when wet, the times are red hot. The jock colony switches most meets, and it gets better with each ing season. Churchill Downs is not one of my favorite tracks, but how can you the incredible stakes, turf racing, and racing connections at the top of the game. So, playing the Derby doesn’t play into the trap.

Smaller ovals can offer good value. I work at one, and you could cash for $4.00 or the 50-1 shot who circled the field yesterday. When a big-name rider drops by; you immediately recognize the difference between the guys who ride three or four mounts a week and a rider who ships in for a big outfit to get a maiden win or steal the sweet purse money. At Belterra, I have seen David Flores, Jeffrey Sanchez, and Rafael Bejarano just to name a few.

If you have to make bets on a track and have no bearings to make a good decision. I have one suggestion. – Dial up Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms and make your day a winner. They have $4,883,569 in exotic payouts just this year. The E-Z Win Forms are color-coded, easy to use, and effective for all bettors. If you are new to the game or have been playing for donkey years you’ll find it to be a tool you cannot do without. Instead of guess-working, allow Winning Ponies to take your game where you want it to be. – I surely wish looking back I would have just ed the E-Z Win Forms and enjoyed the day.

Next time you are going to play a track you normally don’t or if you want to take your game to the next level. – the E-Z Win Forms and thank me later! – Be sure to thank them with a testimonial letting them know how you did for the day. – Don’t be a one-day pro and try and take down the race card you’re not familiar with playing. Take your game to the next level. You are right here now and take a look around and get ready to get in the game. Because you can’t win it unless you get in it. – Best of luck from Winning Ponies!

A good friend and I spoke on Oaks night as we chatted back and forth about the horses, the people involved, and the beauty of the sport. – I didn’t think he’d be going down this year as he has become a player from home catching all of the commentary about the event. – “Ed, I have to make this Derby. I was on hand for Kentucky Derby 100, and now I’m going to Derby 150.” I was so happy my friend was making the journey and experiencing the day. He is a true Renaissance man in every sense of the word. Taking incredible photos, writing, and working with people who have been going since Derby 100. I hope you had a great day my friend. Long may you snap the photo at the wire, write a compelling story, or just chat with old friends. Hope you had a winning day, John Engelhardt.

Two people came up and knocked on my window. I came around and greeted the two older fans who were dressed to the nines. “ Hello, we were just wondering if we could come up and watch you call a race. It seems so exciting.”  – My two new friends met at the Derby in the ’60s and always wanted to come up and see behind the curtain. It was my pleasure to allow a couple of new friends in my booth as I explained what was going on as the horses came to the paddock, let them look around through my binoculars, and talked about racing history. It was an enjoyable time meeting new friends; I was surprised when they asked kindly if they could stay for another race. Kind and gentle sitting next to each other holding hands. She only let go once as that was when I asked her to call the horses onto the track. – Meeting new friends, and enjoying the day was one of the best ways to usher in Kentucky Derby 150. I’ll this Derby with a smile for a long time.

Watching all of the doings of the day was terrific. The Winner’s Circle has now been named in honor of the 5th all-time leading rider in North American history, Perry Ouzts. The paddock was packed. It was amazing watching a gentleman who plied his trade 20 miles away from his front door. A family man from Lepanto, Arkansas who hails from a racing family and a man of few words. Perry prefers to do his talking on horseback on the lead. That’s his signature. Break them quick and go right to the lead. – His cousin Earlie Fires was one of the best speed riders to sit in the saddle, and Perry was right there in the same conversation. Both are listed in the top riders in North American riding history. Congratulations, Perry. Long may you ride!

Thoroughbred racing was alive and well this first Saturday in May. To me, the Oaks and Derby make horse racing fans of everyone for a couple of days. The apron was packed, lines for concessions filled, and fans from all walks enjoying the action. – Hearing the cheering crowd made me get chills as it took me back to any day I was with my Dad at the track. As the horses got closer, the cheers from the stands got louder. Great day to be at the races. – I look back on this day with fond memories. I could say that about all of them, but this one was special. I am grateful for the opportunity to work in racing doing what I enjoy, and to this day my favorite part of the track is the people you see. A melting pot of sorts, and one of the only places you’ll see the lawyer standing next to the plumber sharing a beer and talking about the day’s events. Yeah, it was a damn good day to be a racing fan.

 

 

 

 

 

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is only days away. – It just seems like a few days ago I was watching some of the first prep races for the Derby trail. But, this is not a drill; the real thing takes place this Saturday.

 

Race #6 – The G1 Derby City – 7 furlongs

Race predictions from Timeform US and other figures show this race to have a quick opening pace. Two things happen with such speed. Either there is a complete stoppage and horses will run out of gas, or they will run them off their feet and go wire to wire. – I see this to be an excellent opportunity to stalk and pounce off the pace.

#10 – Vahva (3-1) = This daughter of Gun Runner ran a lights out 2nd place effort at Keeneland last out and this is her 2nd start of the year. Following the solid effort in the G1 Madison, she worked a bullet over the Kee surface. Irad Ortiz is in the saddle and she will be tougher than a nickel steak turning for home.

 

Race #10 – The Churchill Downs Stake – 7 furlongs

#11 – Hoist the Gold (3-1) = He hasn’t run since the G1 Saudi Cup in February and cuts back to 7 furlongs where he is 6/7 ITM at the distance and 4/6 ITM at Churchill. This son of Mineshaft has been working very well in the mornings and John Velasquez looks to give a perfect off-the-pace ride.

 

Race #11 – The G1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 miles on the turf

#11 – Naval Power (7-2) = Frankie Dettori in the driver’s seat for the turf master Charlie Appleby. This son of Teofilo (IRE) has a super strong late kick with a 120 Timeform US late running figure. He was rolling late going 1m at Kee in the G1 Makers Mark Mile and gets 1/8th of a mile more to come running. His dam Emirates Reward (GB) has 5 starters, 4 winners, and a stakes victory to her credit. Frankie and Appleby will make a dangerous team in here, and look for them from the 1/4 to the wire.

 

Race #12 – The G1 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 miles

#4 – Catching Freedom (8-1) = Flavien Prat closed from last place in the G1 Louisiana Derby going 8 wide down the lane to get up. That was 1 3/16th’s and he gets an extra 1/16th of a mile to come motoring. This son of Constitution broke his maiden at first asking at Churchill and is 4/5 ITM lifetime. Lightly raced, and Prat knows how to get their best. Take a look at his last work over the Churchill track going 59.1 the 2nd best of 58 runners that day at the distance. Getting the four-post is a plus as he can save ground or angle off a bit and not get hemmed in along the rail. Watching the race at Fair Grounds sealed the deal for me and I love the rider who should do well for Brad Cox.

Use with: #2 – Sierra Leone, #7 – Honor Marie, and #18 – Stronghold.

 

to your Winning Ponies EZ Win Forms to get a comprehensive look into how the race will take shape. Color-coded and easy to use for the new player to a seasoned professional. Winning Ponies is always ready on the marquee days to take away the guesswork from your handicapping. What are ya waiting for? Let’s get handicapping! – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies.

 

The first day of live racing action can be quite the bonus for handicappers looking to get the jump on a last-minute bankroll boost as the “Lilies for the Fillies” takes place at Churchill Downs. The undercard offers great plays that you can roll right into the Oaks and beyond. Here is a game plan that can get you thinking about Louisville’s Day at the Races.

 

Race #5 – The G1 La Troienne – 1 1/16 miles

 

It looks to be a solid pace run into the turn and expect fractions to be hot. #4 – Idiomatic (6-5) sports a 113 early Timeform figure which equates to a quick start from the gate break. Speed on the lead can be dangerous and Florent Geroux in the irons seeking his 6th straight win.

 

Race #7 – The G2 Alysheba – 1 1/16 miles

This is a crazy hot pace going into the turn and look for the pace to start wobbling at the top of the lane. A runner that fits the bill perfectly is the #3 – First Mission (8-5) who is a perfect stalking sort and his back speed figures show that can be the case when the early running gets salty. 2nd time off the layoff for this son of Street Sense, and can play right into Florent Geroux’s plans turning for home.

 

Race #9 – The G2 8 Belles – 7 furlongs

I’m looking at a very fast pace which is sure to set up the come-from-behind runners. This leads me to the winner of the G2 Beaumont at Keeneland; #7 – Diamonds and Pearls (3-1). A mile pushed her limits a bit and 1 1/16 was too far. Coming right off that win with two works has her looking fine coming into today’s race. Prat Flavien in the irons and look for him at the top of the lane working off the rail circling runners who are tossing in the towel.

 

Race #10 – The G2 Edgewood – 1 1/16 miles on the turf

#13 – Dancing in Dixie (12-1) ran a swift closing race last at Keeneland and needed just a little bit more than the one mile in the G2 Appalachian. Today, she gets an extra 1/16th to run at and Jose Ortiz retains the mount. A big run at a solid price is expected down the lush turf course. Use with: #4 – Buchu, and #11 – Way to be Marie.

 

Race #11 – The G1 Kentucky Oaks – 1 1/8 miles

A quick pace is expected and this could set up some late runners in the final 1/8 of the race. #14 – Leslie’s Rose (4-1) fits the bill in the hands of Irad Ortiz. He has been aboard all four starts and just won the G1 Ashland over the Keenland surface. She packs a strong late kick and should be a factor in being wide and staying away from the quitters who set the early fractions. Use with: #11 – Ways and Means and #13 – Just FYI.

 

This should get you thinking about Oaks Day, and be sure to your Winning Ponies EZ Win Forms for the most comprehensive look into how the races will set up. – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

 

 

Horseplayer friends always have the same chatter going on these days. “Who do you like for the Derby?” – Most have an idea or three, and others can run the list in their head pretty quick. For me, I always have the same answer and it never changes from year to year. Not yet, too early for me.

I’m guessing for at least two defections between now and the Derby in 25 days. Sometimes they matter and others don’t impact the picture much. – For me, they all mean something to complete the picture. Patience.

Take a look at how your horse came out of their last race. If it were a month or more, make sure you see a couple of works, especially one over the track. If it was last weekend, read all reports as if the winner depends on it, as they actually do.

Make sure the rider stays in the saddle. If they jump around and play moving mounts, there is a degree of uncertainty. If a rider stays put, there has been plenty of talk between, the trainer, agent, and rider. I like the teamwork approach.

When do they ship into Churchill Downs? – Biggie here, and most overlook. Nothing like arriving early and setting up home for a month. Horses settle and get used to the surroundings versus runners who ship in days prior and never catch a breath. Pay close attention to who ships in early. This is a sign trainers have been targeting Louisville.

Stay away from late equipment changes. If they add something, they are still trying to figure out what the horse needs. Even a new tongue tie or a set of shorter blinkers make me toss this runner. The only exception is if they had blistering work since their last race will I consider them again.

Only play a runner who was in the top three spots in Grade I-II-III races. This is no time to swing wildly with a runner who had a bad gate trip or finished up the track. Good outfits target this race and know just when to ask their best. – I love to see a sweet middle move where they finished up nicely in the money and galloped out strong past the wire. Last year, I saw this with Two Phil’s in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway. It was the gallop out that caught my eye. Even though he finished a super second in the Derby, he ran his heart out. The last time I saw this over synthetic was many moons ago with Animal Kingdom who won the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Keep your eyes peeled.

Spread exotic wagers. Exactas offer big value in the Derby. – Don’t be afraid to spread out to four or five or more horses in the exotic. It pays better than you think. – Another hidden gem is the place price. I have seen more $9.80 to win and $6.20 to place payoffs than you think. Don’t leave money on the table.

What’s the plan? – Patience. Take your time, read all you can, and take it all in. Don’t be afraid of a big price and don’t be afraid of the “all-button.” -I would grab a few like-minded gambling pals and go after the pick-four leading into the Derby. It will be a big ticket, but this is where the big fish swim. – Best of luck and be sure and check back as we draw closer. I’ll start a few horses to watch lists, and hopefully, they can help you find the big winner!